Google and Twitter Help Track Influenza Outbreaks

This flu season could be the longest and worst in years. So far 18 children have died from flu-related symptoms, and 2,257 people have been hospitalized.

Yesterday Boston Mayor Thomas Menino declared a citywide public health emergency, with roughly 700 confirmed flu cases—ten times the number the city saw last year.

"It arrived five weeks early, and it's shaping up to be a pretty bad flu season," said Lyn Finelli, who heads the Influenza Outbreak Response Team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Boston isn't alone. According to the CDC, 41 states have reported widespread influenza activity, and in the last week of 2012, 5.6 percent of doctor's office visits across the country were for influenza-like illnesses. The severity likely stems from this year's predominant virus: H3N2, a strain known to severely affect children and the elderly. Finelli notes that the 2003-2004 flu season, also dominated by H3N2, produced similar numbers. (See "Are You Prepped? The Influenza Roundup.")

In tracking the flu, physicians and public health officials have a host of new surveillance tools at their disposal thanks to crowdsourcing and social media. Such tools let them get a sense of the flu's reach in real time rather than wait weeks for doctor's offices and state health departments to report in.

Pulling data from online sources "is no different than getting information on over-the-counter medication or thermometer purchases [to track against an outbreak]," said Philip Polgreen, an epidemiologist at the University of Iowa.

The most successful of these endeavors, Google Flu Trends, analyzes flu-related Internet search terms like "flu symptoms" or "flu medication" to estimate flu activity in different areas. It tracks flu outbreaks globally.

Another tool, HealthMap, which is sponsored by Boston Children's Hospital, mines online news reports to track outbreaks in real time. Sickweather draws from posts on Twitter and Facebook that mention the flu for its data.

People can be flu-hunters themselves with Flu Near You, a project that asks people to report their symptoms once a week. So far more than 38,000 people have signed up for this crowdsourced virus tracker. And of course, there's an app for that.

Both Finelli, a Flu Near You user, and Polgreen find the new tools exciting but agree that they have limits. "It's not as if we can replace traditional surveillance. It's really just a supplement, but it's timely," said Polgreen.

When people have timely warning that there's flu in the community, they can get vaccinated, and hospitals can plan ahead. According to a 2012 study in Clinical Infectious Diseases, Google Flu Trends has shown promise predicting emergency room flu traffic. Some researchers are even using a combination of the web database and weather data to predict when outbreaks will peak.

As for the current flu season, it's still impossible to predict week-to-week peaks and troughs. "We expect that it will last a few more weeks, but we can never tell how bad it's going to get," said Finelli.

Hospitals are already taking precautionary measures. One Pennsylvania hospital erected a separate emergency room tent for additional flu patients. This week, several Illinois hospitals went on "bypass," alerting local first responders that they're at capacity—due to an uptick in both flu and non-flu cases—so that patients will be taken to alternative facilities, if possible.

In the meantime, the CDC advises vaccination, first and foremost. On the bright side, the flu vaccine being used this year is a good match for the H3N2 strain. Though Finelli cautions, "Sometimes drifted strains pop up toward the end of the season."

It looks like there won't be shortages of seasonal flu vaccine like there have been in past years. HealthMap sports a Flu Vaccine Finder to make it a snap to find a dose nearby. And if the flu-shot line at the neighborhood pharmacy seems overwhelming, more health departments and clinics are offering drive-through options.

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Judge: Holmes Can Face Trial for Aurora Shooting

Jan 10, 2013 8:45pm

(Arapahoe County Sheriff/AP Photo)

In a ruling that comes as little surprise, the judge overseeing the Aurora, Colo., theater massacre has ordered that there is enough evidence against James Holmes to proceed to a trial.

In an order posted late Thursday, Judge William Sylvester wrote that “the People have carried their burden of proof and have established that there is probable cause to believe that Defendant committed the crimes charged.”

The ruling came after a three-day preliminary hearing this week that revealed new details about how Holmes allegedly planned for and carried out the movie theater shooting, including how investigators say he amassed an arsenal of guns and ammunition, how he booby-trapped his apartment to explode, and his bizarre behavior after his arrest.

PHOTOS: Colorado ‘Dark Knight Rises’ Theater Shooting

Holmes is charged with 166 counts, including murder, attempted murder and other charges related to the July 20 shooting that left 12 people dead and 58 wounded by gunfire. An additional 12 people suffered non-gunshot injuries.

One of the next legal steps is an arraignment, at which Holmes will enter a plea. The arraignment was originally expected to take place Friday morning.

Judge Sylvester indicated through a court spokesman that he would allow television and still cameras into the courtroom, providing the outside world the first images of Holmes since a July 23 hearing. Plans for cameras in court, however, were put on hold Thursday afternoon.

“The defense has notified the district attorney that it is not prepared to proceed to arraignment in this case by Friday,” wrote public defenders Daniel King, Tamara Brady and Kristen Nelson Thursday afternoon in a document objecting to cameras in court.

A hearing in the case will still take place Friday morning. In his order, Judge Sylvester said it should technically be considered an arraignment, but noted the defense has requested a continuance.  Legal experts expect the judge will grant the continuance, delaying the arraignment and keeping cameras out of court for now.

Sylvester also ordered that Holmes be held without bail.

Holmes’ attorneys have said in court that the former University of Colorado neuroscience student is mentally ill. The district attorney overseeing the case has not yet announced whether Holmes, now 25, can face the death penalty.

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Bibles used by King, Lincoln to be part of Obama’s second inauguration

Martin Luther King Jr. carried a black leather King James Bible on his journeys as a young pastor starting out in Montgomery, Ala. He turned to this “traveling Bible” for inspiration, his family says, as he fought for freedom and equality.

President Obama will put his hand over King’s well-worn Bible at his public swearing-in at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 21, the holiday celebrating the birthday of the slain civil rights leader. King’s Bible will be stacked with the burgundy velvet and gilded Bible used by President Abraham Lincoln at his first inauguration.

Obama chose the Lincoln Bible for his inauguration in 2009, making him the first president to do so since it was initially used in 1861. President Harry S. Truman also used two Bibles, as did Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard M. Nixon.

The announcement about the Bibles, to be made publicly Thursday, is part of the slow unspooling of inaugural details that fascinates lovers of ceremonial Americana.

Presidential inaugurations have become more filled with rites, and such decisions are especially weighty now at a time when the White House is aware that Americans are struggling to come together.

King’s family said in a statement that he would be “deeply moved” to see Obama use the traveling Bible on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, “and we hope it can be a source of strength for the President as he begins his second term.”

“With the Inauguration less than two weeks away, we join Americans across the country in embracing this opportunity to celebrate how far we have come, honor the legacy of Martin Luther King Jr. through service, and rededicate ourselves to the work ahead,” the statement added.

According to the Presidential Inaugural Committee, which organizes the swearing-in ceremony, King traveled with various books, including this Bible. “It was used for inspiration and preparing sermons and speeches, including during Dr. King’s time as pastor of Dexter Avenue Baptist Church” in Montgomery, the committee said in a statement.

Obama and Vice President Biden will be sworn in privately on Sunday, Jan. 20 — the date required by the Constitution. For that first ceremony, Obama will use the family Bible of his wife’s family. According to the inaugural committee, that Bible “was a gift from the First Lady’s father, Fraser Robinson III, to his mother, LaVaughn Delores Robinson, on Mother’s Day in 1958. Mrs. Robinson was the first African-American woman manager of a Moody Bible Institute’s bookstore.” That Bible was the only one Michelle Obama’s grandmother used after that, a committee statement said.

For both the private and then the Monday public ceremonies, Biden will be sworn in with a Bible that has been in his family since 1893: a five-inch-thick volume with a Celtic cross on the cover. He also used it for his swearings-in as a U.S. senator and in 2009 as vice president.

Some aspects of the inaugural ceremony have changed slightly over the decades. Having official prayers offered dates only to the 1930s, historians say. But presidents have used Bibles to be sworn in since George Washington, even though the Constitution does not require it. The Constitution also does not require the phrase “So help me God” at the end, but that has become standard, said Donald Ritchie, the historian of the U.S. Senate.

He also noted that the image of the president’s spouse holding the Bible dates only to Lady Bird Johnson doing so in 1965.

Chief justices of the Supreme Court now traditionally deliver the oath, but Ritchie said any federal official can do so.

Several non-Christian members of Congress have recently used other scriptures, including Rep. Keith Ellison, the first Muslim elected to Congress, in 2007. The Minnesota Democrat used a Koran owned by Thomas Jefferson.

Obama veered from tradition in one key aspect of the ceremony: He invited Myrlie Evers-Williams, widow of slain civil rights figure Medgar Evers, to deliver the invocation prayer. It will be the first time a woman, and a layperson rather than clergy, has done so.

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58,000 commuters affected by NEL train disruption

SINGAPORE: Some 58,000 commuters were affected on Thursday when train services between HarbourFront and Dhoby Ghaut stations on the North East Line (NEL) were disrupted for six-and-a-half hours.

Rail operator SBS Transit said the disruption was traced to three broken U-shaped bolts between the HarbourFront and Outram Park stations, resulting in a power trip.

The fault is similar to one that had occurred in last August in the same tunnel section.

The stainless steel U-bolts in question were checked following the August incident and found to be in good working condition.

SBS Transit has decided to replace all U-bolts in the tunnel, starting with the section between HarbourFront and Outram Park stations.

This initial section contains about 1,900 U-bolts and is expected to take about three months for the replacement to be completed.

SBS Transit said it is working with the Land Transport Authority to review and examine all possible causes and contributory factors to the recent incidents.

Commuters were first alerted to the train disruption at about 10am on Thursday.

In addition to signboards, SBS staff wearing "Goodwill Ambassador" were also on the ground to advise and direct commuters on where to go.

Shuttle services were activated at designated bus stops at around 10.30am to provide free bus rides.

Commuters were informed at around 12.30pm that train services would resume in the late afternoon.

And shortly after 4.30pm, the full NEL service was up and running.

This is not the first time the NEL has been disrupted.

On December 20 last year, some 26,000 commuters were affected by a train fault.

- CNA/fa

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Increase in ceasefire violations by Pakistan in 2012: India

NEW DELHI: Ceasefire violations by Pakistan increased during the past year, national security advisor Shivshankar Menon said here on Thursday, a day after India lodged a strong protest with Pakistan over the killing of two of its soldiers by Pakistani troops.

"There has been an increase in ceasefire violations by Pakistan and in infiltration attempts in 2012 over 2011," Menon said at a media briefing, adding that they have taken it up with Pakistani authorities.

Two Indian soldiers were killed and beheaded by Pakistani soldiers on Tuesday in Poonch district — in the worst violation of the ceasefire that is in place since 2003 on the Line of Control (LoC) that divides Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

Pakistan high commissioner Salman Bashir was summoned by foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai on Wednesday and a strong protest lodged.

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Embryonic Sharks Freeze to Avoid Detection

Jane J. Lee

Although shark pups are born with all the equipment they'll ever need to defend themselves and hunt down food, developing embryos still stuck in their egg cases are vulnerable to predators. But a new study finds that even these baby sharks can detect a potential predator, and play possum to avoid being eaten.

Every living thing gives off a weak electrical field. Sharks can sense this with a series of pores—called the ampullae of Lorenzini—on their heads and around their eyes, and some species rely on this electrosensory ability to find food buried in the seafloor. (See pictures of electroreceptive fish.)

Two previous studies on the spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula) and the clearnose skate (Raja eglanteria)—a relative of sharks—found similar freezing behavior in their young. But new research by shark biologist and doctoral student Ryan Kempster at the University of Western Australia has given scientists a more thorough understanding of this behavior.

It all started because Kempster wanted to build a better shark repellent. Since he needed to know how sharks respond to electrical fields, Kempster decided to use embryos. "It's very hard to test this in the field because you need to get repeated responses," he said. And you can't always get the same shark to cooperate multiple times. "But we could use embryos because they're contained within an egg case."

Cloaking Themselves

So Kempster got his hands on 11 brownbanded bamboo shark (Chiloscyllium punctatum) embryos and tested their reactions to the simulated weak electrical field of a predator. (Popular pictures: Bamboo shark swallowed whole—by another shark.)

In a study published today in the journal PLoS One, Kempster and his colleagues report that all of the embryonic bamboo sharks, once they reached later stages of development, reacted to the electrical field by ceasing gill movements (essentially, holding their breath), curling their tails around their bodies, and freezing.

A bamboo shark embryo normally beats its tail to move fresh seawater in and out of its egg case. But that generates odor cues and small water currents that can give away its position. The beating of its gills as it breathes also generates an electrical field that predators can use to find it.

"So it cloaks itself," said neuroecologist Joseph Sisneros, at the University of Washington in Seattle, who was not involved in the study. "[The embryo] shuts down any odor cues, water movement, and its own electrical signal."

Sisneros, who conducted the previous clearnose skate work, is delighted to see that this shark species also reacts to external electrical fields and said it would be great to see whether this is something all shark, skate, and ray embryos do.

Marine biologist Stephen Kajiura, at Florida Atlantic University, is curious to know how well the simulated electrical fields compare to the bamboo shark's natural predators—the experimental field was on the higher end of the range normally given off.

"[But] they did a good job with [the study]," Kajiura said. "They certainly did a more thorough study than anyone else has done."

Electrifying Protection?

In addition to the freezing behavior he recorded in the bamboo shark embryos, Kempster found that the shark pups remembered the electrical field signal when it was presented again within 40 minutes and that they wouldn't respond as strongly to subsequent exposures as they did initially.

This is important for developing shark repellents, he said, since some of them use electrical fields to ward off the animals. "So if you were using a shark repellent, you would need to change the current over a 20- to 30-minute period so the shark doesn't get used to that field."

Kempster envisions using electrical fields to not only keep humans safe but to protect sharks as well. Shark populations have been on the decline for decades, due partly to ending up as bycatch, or accidental catches, in the nets and on the longlines of fishers targeting other animals.

A 2006 study estimated that as much as 70 percent of landings, by weight, in the Spanish surface longline fleet were sharks, while a 2007 report found that eight million sharks are hooked each year off the coast of southern Africa. (Read about the global fisheries crisis in National Geographic magazine.)

"If we can produce something effective, it could be used in the fishing industry to reduce shark bycatch," Kempster said. "In [America] at the moment, they're doing quite a lot of work trying to produce electromagnetic fish hooks." The eventual hope is that if these hooks repel the sharks, they won't accidentally end up on longlines.

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Seau Suffered Brain Disease From NFL Hits: Study

A team of scientists who analyzed the brain tissue of renowned NFL linebacker Junior Seau after his suicide last year have concluded the football player suffered a debilitating brain disease likely caused by two decades worth of hits to the head, researchers and his family exclusively told ABC News and ESPN.

In May, Seau, 43 -- football's monster in the middle, a perennial all-star and defensive icon in the 1990s whose passionate hits made him a dominant figure in the NFL -- shot himself in the chest at his home in Oceanside, Calif., leaving behind four children and many unanswered questions.

Seau's family donated his brain to neuroscientists at the National Institutes for Health who are conducting ongoing research on traumatic brain injury and football players.

Click Here to Read ESPN's Coverage on Junior Seau

A team of independent researchers who did not know they were studying Seau's brain all concluded he suffered from chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a degenerative disease typically caused by multiple hits to the head.

"What was found in Junior Seau's brain was cellular changes consistent with CTE," said Dr. Russell Lonser, chairman of the Department of Neurological Surgery at Ohio State University, who led the study of Seau's brain while he was at NIH.

Frazer Harrison/Getty Images

U.S. Emergency Rooms Inundated With Flu Patients Watch Video

Patients with CTE, which can only be diagnosed after death, display symptoms "such as impulsivity, forgetfulness, depression, [and] sometimes suicidal ideation," Lonser said.

Seau's family described to ABC News and ESPN a long descent into depression in the years prior to his death.

Gina Seau, his ex-wife with whom he remained close following their divorce, said the linebacker had difficulty sleeping and became withdrawn and "detached emotionally" from his children. In one exchange, he described his mood as "low" and "dark."

"A lot of things, towards the end of his life, patterns that we saw and things that worried us, it makes sense now," she said of the diagnosis.

The night before his death, Seau sent a text message to his ex-wife and children in which he simply wrote, "I love you." They were the last words anyone would hear from him.

More than 30 NFL players have in recent years been diagnosed with CTE, a condition once known as "punch drunk" because it affected boxers who had taken multiple blows to the head. Last year, 4,000 retired players joined a class-action lawsuit against the league over its alleged failure to protect players from brain injuries.

The NFL has said it did not intentionally hide the dangers of concussions from players and is doing everything it can now to protect them.

Gina Seau said she and her ex-husband expected physical injuries from playing professional football but never thought "you're putting your brain and your mental health at a greater risk."

Junior Seau, she said, was never formally diagnosed with a concussion but routinely complained of symptoms associated with concussions after receiving hits to the head during games and in practices in 20 seasons in the NFL.

"The head-to-head contact, the collisions are just, they're out of control," Gina Seau said.

"He was a warrior and he loved the game," she added. "But ... I know that he didn't love the end of his life."

For the Seaus, football gave them everything and, they believe, has now taken it all away. They understand its attraction and, all too well, its routine danger.

"I think it's a gamble," Gina Seau said. "Just be extremely aware of what could potentially happen to your life."

None of the Seau children play football anymore and their mother is glad of that.

"It's not worth it for me to not have a dad," said one of the Seaus' sons, Tyler Seau, 23. "So, to me, it's not worth it."

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GAO calls on Postal Service to prefund retiree benefits

U.S. Postal Service officials and postal unions have long pushed Congress to relieve the agency of its obligation to prefund retiree health benefits. It’s a burden other agencies don’t share and one that officials say the Postal Service can’t afford. Defaults on prefunding payments total $11.1 billion.

But not everyone agrees that removing or substantially reducing the prefunding requirement is the best way out of the USPS hole.

A recent Government Accountability Office report says the “USPS should prefund its retiree health benefit liabilities to the maximum extent that its finances permit.”

The GAO said that deferring the prefunding payments “could increase costs for future ratepayers and increase the possibility that USPS may not be able to pay for some or all of its liability.”

The report said the Postal Service’s financial condition makes it difficult for the agency “to fully fund the remaining $48 billion unfunded liability over the remaining 44 years of the schedule” set up by the 2006 Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act.

USPS officials say they can pay $0.00. The Postal Service is losing $25 million a day.

“If Congress was to eliminate the requirement for USPS to pay down its unfunded liability on retiree health care, taxpayers would almost certainly pick up the bill,” said House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Darrell Issa (R-Calif.). “USPS needs to cut costs, not cheat taxpayers or its own employees.”

The GAO report gives something to both sides, saying that the USPS should prefund its retiree health benefits, while acknowledging that it currently is too broke to do it.

In a response included in the GAO report, Joseph Corbett, the USPS chief financial officer and executive vice president, said the Postal Service “does not have the financial resources to make the prefunding payments required by current law.”

He criticized the GAO for releasing a report that did not include the controversial USPS proposal to sponsor its own health-care plan, outside of the Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan that now covers postal workers.

“Allowing the Postal Service to gain control of its own health care program would save money, reduce or eliminate the current unfunded liability, and allow for better management of health care costs going forward,” Corbett said.

Fredric Rolando, president of the National Association of Letter Carriers, called on Congress to “reject the GAO’s policy myopia. . . . Government records show that 80 percent of all the USPS red ink stems directly from prefunding.”

Report: Close the digital divide

Uncle Sam needs to get with the digital program.

That’s the takeaway from a report — with the appropriate title #ConnectedGov — on the government’s use of technology and social media. It is being released Wednesday by the Partnership for Public Service, in collaboration with the Booz Allen Hamilton consulting firm.

The report identifies innovative digital programs in seven agencies, demonstrating that “there are places in government that are doing immensely creative and impactful things,” said Max Stier, president and chief executive of the Partnership.

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S'pore retail investors optimistic about outlook: survey

SINGAPORE: Singapore retail investors are optimistic about their investment outlook for the next six months, according to a survey released on Wednesday by J P Morgan Asset Management.

According to the report, the J P Morgan Investor Confidence Index increased by 5 points to 106 in the latest survey, conducted between November 21 to December 7 2012.

This is a marked increase from one year ago, where the index was 86.

The increased confidence was boosted by expectations of an improved global economic environment, with 42 per cent of respondents indicating that they are likely to increase their investments in the next six months.

"The latest results demonstrate that Singapore investor confidence continues to improve," said Mr Andrew Creber, Head of Singapore Business, J P Morgan Asset Management.

"This is no doubt influenced by the progress we have seen over the past six months, where the risk of a financial meltdown in Europe was largely reduced. The Chinese economy is steadily recovering. In the US, despite the ongoing political tug-of-war over public finance, the restoration of household balance sheets and an improvement in the housing market is taking place," he added.

Confidence is also returning to affluent investors.

Investors with investable assets of S$500,000 and above were markedly more optimistic than investors with less investable assets, hitting a confidence level of 119, an increase of 17 points from June 2012.

Meanwhile, mutual fund investors have shown an increasing preference for multi asset/balanced funds, with those surveyed increasing their weighted allocation up by 7 per cent to 47 per cent for their mutual fund portfolio.

"It is important for investors to remain diversified to maintain stability in their portfolios," said Mr Creber.

The J P Morgan Investor Confidence Index is derived from a scoring of investor responses to a series of questions on their outlook for the Straits Times Index (STI), local and global economic and investment environments, and appreciation in their investment portfolio.

An index level of 100 is neutral, while 200 is extremely optimistic while zero is extremely pessimistic.

- CNA/xq

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Assam: 3 killed, 2 injured in explosion in Digboi

GUWAHATI: Three children were killed and several others injured in an explosion near a primary school in upper Assam's Tinsukia district on Wednesday.

The cause of the explosion, which took place at Kharjan pool area of Digboi town in the evening, is yet to be ascertained, police said.

Army and police personnel have rushed to the spot and the area has been cordoned off.

The injured children have been sent to hospitals. Police have not ruled out the involvement of some militant outfits in the explosion and investigation into the incident is on.

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